Why War might be the only way that the Pakistani Establishment can save its skin.
Ever since the establishment of Pakistan, the Pakistani elites have been able to successfully control and manipulate the public through many styles and means this seems to be more difficult due to increased awareness amongst the masses.
The pressure that has been caused by the Hinduvta state’s actions in Kashmir on the both the military and its civilian face has been intense. The public in Pakistan demands action and the weakness of the establishment against India exposes it for what it is- a clique looking after its own affairs with little vision for developing the country as a whole.
The pushing of diplomatic means through the UN Security Council and the international community has been seen for what it is – worthless. As are the charades like standing for half an hour Fridays which has been widely ridiculed.
The elites in Pakistan care very little if at all about the demands of Islam with respect to other Muslims. The only real concern about Kashmir is how it effects public opinion within Pakistan both amongst the military and civilians. For this reason they are pushed to make some gestures to placate the masses.
For a long period of time, the trajectory of Pakistani policy has been to try to normalise relations with India. This makes sense for the elites as a stable Pakistan with no threats at the border would allow the country to be further exploited in collaboration with India.
The Hinduvta government has no intention of changing it stance on Kashmir and is working to integrate Kashmir into its territory. This coupled with belligerent statements against Pakistan, threats to invade what the Indians call Pakistan occupied Kashmir and the general persecution of Muslims throughout India- all turn the heat up on the Pakistani establishment.
A possible way to resolve the issue is a limited war that will show that India is unbeatable. Just like the phoney 6 day war where Israel claimed to have beaten its neighbouring Arab armies , creating the myth that Israel is unbeatable. In this scenario it might even be seen as a victory for Pakistan to keep its existing borders and possibly turn the LOC to an international border.
It would be a risky manoeuvre and could backfire. If it can fool the people it would allow the pak establishment, India and the US to deescalate tensions settle the Kashmir issue. The Indians then could focus on countering China as part of the US strategy against China.
This is a possible scenario but we have to see how things develop in the forthcoming weeks. If an Indo Pak war comes, we must not be naive to think that it is for the assistance of the Muslims of Kashmir. We all know too well that the pakistani establishments brains are in its pockets and that’s the main idea that drives them. To them normalising relations with India is a worthwhile action even if it means ditching the 8 million Muslims in Kashmir.