Here are a few points that might be useful in considering what the Indian position is with regards to what is going on in Kashmir.
- Narendra Modi is an extreme Hindu nationalist and secured a electoral win not on the strength of his policies but the rousing of populist Hindu identity amongst the 80% Hindu population. He has long held hatred against Muslims and turned more than a blind eye to the killing of Muslims in Gujrat in 2002. Ever since his election win where he won a strong majority 303 seats out 543 ( the nearest opposition party getting only 52) the killing, lynching and attempts at forcible conversion of Muslims by Hindu mobs and thugs has increased. He sees his Hindu zealotry and polarisation of hindus against minorities as a winning formula for electoral success into the future.
- As part of this drive to put Hindus first, the Indian government has revoked articles 370 and 35a which allowed Kashmir to have a significant amount of autonomy. Kashmir is the largest Muslim majority state in India. Just like in Pakistan no one who is not and indigenous Kashmiri is allowed to purchase land there. The implication of this is that through relocation of Hindus to Kashmir it will no longer remain a Muslim majority state . The Muslims therefore will become a minority as they are in other parts of India. This effectively resolves the issue as demands for either Kashmiri Independence or joining with Pakistan on the basis the populace is Muslim will no long stand true. The most likely scenario is that existing political structures will be dismantled and Indian occupied Kashmir will be split with governors being appointed direct by Delhi.
The signs are not good for the Muslims in Kashmir as elsewhere in India, the increase in military activities indicates that there will be a crackdown on the inevitable civil disobedience that will arise.
- It seems Modi has been emboldened with the weak stance of Pakistan with regards to the Kashmir issue. Imran Khan recently massaged Trumps ego by asking for him to bring India and Pakistan to the negotiating table to resolve the Kashmir issue, this irked the Indians as they had already discussed their plan with the Americans according to reports.
In all likelihood the Indians realise that all Pakistan has done is little more than empty gestures to appease elements within Pakistan. It is not serious with the Kashmir issue that has festered for more than 70 years. Pakistan could have done so at Kargil when military victory over the Indians in Kashmir was imminent if it was seriously backing the Muslims in Kashmir.
Pakistan has consistently shown a weak stance towards Kashmir, which is not surprising as the mindset in establishment is not built upon any ideological basis( even as shallow as Modi’s Hindu racism).
Additionally the crackdown on Kashmiri Mujahideen movements in Pakistan and the lukewarm support to those in Indian occupied Kashmir has emboldened Modi. The official Twitter handle of Pakistani President Arif Alvi said: “India’s attempt to further change status of Jammu and Kashmir is against the resolutions of UNSC and against wishes of the Kashmiri people.” Modi like his Israeli mentors knows full well that UN resolutions are not worth toilet paper. Modi understands that going to the “international community” and the UN will not stop him from seeing through his plan to Hinduise Kashmir. As far as he is concerned he is settling the Kashmir issue. At this juncture it is unlikely that he has any ambitions beyond the existing line of control.
- No other country Muslim or non Muslim ( barring Pakistans tepid response) including China, Iran, Turkey as yet have indicated opposition to Modi’s stance and solidarity with the Muslims in Kashmir. We all know that this is due to the silence of Muslim masses at large in accepting the politics that is implemented over them.