This is quite an interesting development. My initial thoughts and observations are below, appreciate any comments and angles to add
- France wishes to curtail Turkish influence particularly in North Africa. This is due to its economic interests being in jeopardy. North Africa has long been a captive market for French goods . Companies like Renault and Puegeot have significance presence as an example. It is an EU power and has good military capability.
- Egypt taking part in this alliance is interesting. Firstly Egypt is a subordinate nation, whilst people would immediately point to the US “directing” Egypt into doing this the exact influence of the different colonialists needs to be taken into account. Secondly, there has been a souring of relations between Turkey and Egypt since the late President Morsi was removed by Sisi. Thirdly the Turkish interference in Libya maybe a factor as those expecting to gain from that situation via Egypt seem to have their plans foiled
- UAE sees itself as a mini colonialist. With large funds available it seeks influence in the middle east and beyond to benefit its rulers and its small population. UAE was active militarily in Yemen and also had a hand in Syria. It feels Turkey as threat to its interests. Turkey is also friendly with its rival Qatar
- Greece & Cyprus. Both border Turkey and are no match for the Turkish Military. This alliance gives them extra clout. In addition with the EU weakening , it may no longer be in a position to provide them with the support they need. Additionally there has been Turkish drilling activity off the coast of Cyprus that they have been concerned about and claim that the Turks have no right
- Israel, is conspicuously missing from this alliance. The East med pipeline that it is envisages goes from “Israeli” waters through Cyprus and Greece to supply Europe gas would be project that the yahood would be keen to see completed. The Turks concluded a maritime arrangement registered at the UN with the Libyans. For Turkey it means they can leverage themselves to either deny the pipeline , or secure a deal with Israel to to allow it in return for much needed revenue. Perhaps the rhetoric about not giving up Palestinian land in Erdogans eid speech was an opening salvo to paving the way for this deal. If Israel is backing this alliance behind the scenes (which would be in its interests to do so) requires political data to confirm
- Turkey has opened many fronts on the international arena. This alliance is designed to curtail Turkeys influence, thes powers are particularly concerned as it seems Turkey has rolled back Haftar in Libya.
What must be noted is that there is opposition to Erdogan’s Foreign policy internally in Turkey he is constantly walking tightrope. This coupled with the pragmatic nature limits the potential Turkey might have. Unless they overcome their pragmatism , they in all liklelihood struggle to overcome the challenges thrown in front of them. What needs to be done in Turkey is to generate an awareness of Islam not as a pious generation , but as viewpoint on life with a mission to rescue humanity and a public opinon upon which Turkey should transform itself to the Khilafah and then it would have the Muslim masses behind , defeat kemalism properly and tackle the international situation fuelled by Islam.